Can a football simulator predict the future? After the 2026 World Cup, this question has once again become relevant.
Even before the tournament kicked off, EA Sports ran its traditional World Cup simulation in EA SPORTS FC 26, which named Spain as the main favorite for the title. After the final whistle, the prediction turned out to have hit the mark once again.
For EA, this marks the fifth consecutive correctly predicted World Cup champion.
The tradition of predicting the World Cup winner dates back to the days of the FIFA series. Before every World Cup, EA launches a full tournament simulation, modeling all matches—from the group stage to the final.
So far, the statistics look almost unbelievable:
- 2010 — 2010 FIFA World Cup predicted Spain's triumph;
- 2014 — the simulation awarded the title to Germany;
- 2018 — France was slated to be the champion, and they went on to win the tournament;
- 2022 — FIFA 23 bet on Argentina, which defeated France after a dramatic final;
- 2026 — EA SPORTS FC 26 predicted a victory for Spain, and this forecast came true once again.
Thus, the streak of accurate predictions has now lasted five consecutive World Cups.
The simulation is not a random choice of a favorite. It uses player ratings, team characteristics, gameplay physics, and numerous simulated matches to recreate the entire tournament.
Of course, such a model cannot account for injuries, the psychological state of players, refereeing decisions, or other unpredictable factors. However, five successful predictions in a row are hard to call a simple coincidence.
Fun fact: prior to World Cup 2022, the FIFA 23 simulation not only correctly named the tournament winner, but also predicted that Lionel Messi would become the best player of the tournament. In reality, the Argentine indeed received the best player award of the tournament. This made EA's forecast one of the most accurate in the history of the series.
After another accurate prediction, fans are already joking that instead of listening to sports analysts, it's enough to simply wait for the simulation from EA Sports.
Whether this amazing streak will continue at the 2030 World Cup, only time will tell. But for now, the statistics are unequivocally on the side of the football simulator.
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